Examples of automatic stabilizers
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During recessions, the automatic stabilizers tend to increase the budget deficit, so if the economy was instead at full employment, the deficit would be reduced.
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Notice that in recession years, like the early 1990s, 2001, or 2009, the standardized employment deficit is smaller than the actual deficit. (Sources: Actual and Cyclically Adjusted Budget Surpluses/Deficits, and Economic Report of the President, Table B-1, ) When the economy is performing extremely well, the standardized employment deficit (or surplus) is higher than the actual budget deficit (or surplus) because the economy is producing about potential GDP, so the automatic stabilizers are increasing taxes and reducing the need for government spending. When the economy is in recession, the standardized employment budget deficit is less than the actual budget deficit because the economy is below potential GDP, and the automatic stabilizers are reducing taxes and increasing spending. In those earlier times, the smaller size of government made automatic stabilizers far less powerful than in the last few decades, when government spending often hovers at 20% of GDP or more. In 1929, just before the Great Depression hit, government spending was still just 4% of GDP. Around 1900, for example, federal spending was only about 2% of GDP. Thus, the automatic stabilizing effects from spending and taxes are now larger than they were in the first half of the twentieth century. One reason why the economy has tipped into recession less frequently in recent decades is that the size of government spending and taxes has increased in the second half of the twentieth century. The three longest economic booms of the twentieth century happened in the 1960s, the 1980s, and the 1991–2001 time period. economy in recent decades (as we discussed in Unemployment). Remember that the length of economic upswings between recessions has become longer in the U.S. Most economists, even those who are concerned about a possible pattern of persistently large budget deficits, are much less concerned or even quite supportive of larger budget deficits in the short run of a few years during and immediately after a severe recession.Ī glance back at economic history provides a second illustration of the power of automatic stabilizers. The Great Recession, starting in late 2007, meant less tax-generating economic activity, which triggered the automatic stabilizers that reduce taxes. In addition, the automatic stabilizers react to a weakening of aggregate demand with expansionary fiscal policy and react to a strengthening of aggregate demand with contractionary fiscal policy, just as the AD/AS analysis suggests.Ī combination of automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy produced the very large budget deficit in 2009. In 2009, the stimulus package included an extension in the time allowed to collect unemployment insurance. Higher unemployment and a weaker economy should lead to increased government spending on unemployment benefits, welfare, and other similar domestic programs.
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The lower level of aggregate demand and higher unemployment will tend to pull down personal incomes and corporate profits, an effect that will reduce the amount of taxes owed automatically. If aggregate demand were to fall sharply so that a recession occurs, then the prescription would be for expansionary fiscal policy-some mix of tax cuts and spending increases. On the spending side, stronger aggregate demand typically means lower unemployment and fewer layoffs, and so there is less need for government spending on unemployment benefits, welfare, Medicaid, and other programs in the social safety net. Because taxes are based on personal income and corporate profits, a rise in aggregate demand automatically increases tax payments. On the tax side, a rise in aggregate demand means that workers and firms throughout the economy earn more.
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To some extent, both changes happen automatically. The policy prescription in this setting would be a dose of contractionary fiscal policy, implemented through some combination of higher taxes and lower spending. This situation will increase inflationary pressure in the economy. Consider first the situation where aggregate demand has risen sharply, causing the equilibrium to occur at a level of output above potential GDP.